Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4914 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4914 SAN 06:31 → SJC 08:07 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4915 SAN 12:33 → SJC 14:08 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4914 Southwest	SAN 06:31	SJC 08:07	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2768 Southwest	SAN 08:18	SJC 09:53	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 4261 Southwest	SAN 09:33	SJC 11:08	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 539 Southwest	SAN 10:48	SJC 12:23	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 864 SkyWest	SAN 07:45	SJC 09:25	19%	7%	1.1%	no record
WN 3162 Southwest	SAN 14:32	SJC 16:08	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3036 SkyWest	SAN 09:43	SJC 11:23	20%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 3465 Southwest	SAN 15:54	SJC 17:30	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4918 Southwest	SAN 13:32	SJC 15:07	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4915 Southwest	SAN 12:33	SJC 14:08	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 2091 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:55	SJC 11:24	49%	12%	1.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON