Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1117 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1117 SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 3488 SAN 15:54 → SLC 19:02 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1117 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	SLC 09:21	7%	3%	0.6%	96%
WN 3687 Southwest	SAN 08:06	SLC 11:13	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SAN 09:46	SLC 12:50	14%	5%	0.6%	93%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SAN 17:01	SLC 19:59	15%	5%	0.6%	82%
WN 1085 Southwest	SAN 17:02	SLC 20:07	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:15	SLC 16:18	18%	5%	0.6%	87%
OO 3058 SkyWest	SAN 08:47	SLC 11:58	23%	9%	0.7%	no record
AS 3488 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:54	SLC 19:02	27%	9%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON