Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3689 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3689 SAN 06:51 → SMF 08:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3439 SAN 11:00 → SMF 12:53 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3689 Southwest	SAN 06:51	SMF 08:36	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2926 Southwest	SAN 08:11	SMF 09:55	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2857 Southwest	SAN 09:31	SMF 11:15	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2836 Southwest	SAN 11:01	SMF 12:45	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 4269 Southwest	SAN 11:41	SMF 13:25	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 3410 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:39	SMF 19:28	24%	9%	0.9%	80%
WN 4272 Southwest	SAN 17:36	SMF 19:21	24%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 4957 Southwest	SAN 12:36	SMF 14:20	25%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 3209 SkyWest	SAN 08:18	SMF 10:07	27%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 3691 Southwest	SAN 14:57	SMF 16:41	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4271 Southwest	SAN 16:02	SMF 17:46	27%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 652 Southwest	SAN 13:47	SMF 15:32	29%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 3439 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 11:00	SMF 12:53	31%	12%	0.8%	74%
AS 2100 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 07:44	SMF 09:36	18%	9%	2.2%	82%
AS 2334 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:56	SMF 18:38	43%	12%	0.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON