Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4576 at 13:23, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4576 Southwest	SAN 13:23	STL 18:58	30%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224	8h 30m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	9h 09m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:06DL 543	7h 51m	99%	84%
United Details →	SAN 08:00 → IAH 13:12UA 2760	2h 19m Houston	IAH 15:31 → STL 17:42UA 6160 · flown by Mesa	7h 42m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833	10h 05m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → STL 19:00DL 1492	7h 14m	97%	80%
United Details →	SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 20:17 → STL 21:44UA 1625	9h 09m	95%	80%
American Details →	SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:46 → STL 16:38AA 3944 · flown by Envoy	8h 18m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492	50m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541	7h 00m	65%	56%
United Details →	SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 17:55 → STL 19:23UA 4412 · flown by GoJet	6h 48m	75%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON