Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 120 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 120 SAN 08:31 → STS 10:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3045 SAN 12:19 → STS 14:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 120 Southwest	SAN 08:31	STS 10:19	10%	4%	2.0%	no record
AS 3445 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 08:01	STS 09:53	18%	9%	2.5%	84%
OO 3045 SkyWest	SAN 12:19	STS 14:11	24%	9%	2.2%	no record
AS 2258 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:37	STS 18:23	50%	17%	0.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON