tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via DFW, leaving 12:20, is the safest bet: 41% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4662 Southwest SAN 08:47 TPA 16:32 26% 7% 0.8% no record
AS 1721 Alaska SAN 08:26 TPA 16:02 29% 5% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264 8h 12m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → TPA 16:58DL 759 7h 43m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19DL 367 3h 36m New York JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636 12h 51m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → TPA 21:30DL 3135 7h 54m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 1h 52m Dulles IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140 9h 39m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Los Angeles LAX 10:11 → TPA 18:05DL 749 8h 50m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457 8h 54m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 38m Denver DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375 7h 48m 90% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 52m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → TPA 17:59DL 1425 6h 59m 67% 55%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 49m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355 7h 58m 64% 52%
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:26 → TPA 22:08AA 2256 6h 48m 61% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON