tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2321 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 09:16 TUL 14:30 37% 10% 0.0% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 9h 49m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TUL 19:48AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 7h 58m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 49m Houston IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa 7h 54m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAH 13:12UA 2760 1h 23m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 15m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 23m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 5h 44m 88% 76%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:10 → TUL 15:30AA 2851 7h 10m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:28 → TUL 17:52AA 2830 8h 37m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:05AS 709 2h 47m Seattle SEA 11:52 → TUL 17:32AS 2217 · flown by Horizon 9h 16m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TUL 19:48AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 5h 28m 70% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON