Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3194 at 08:42, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3194 Southwest	SAN 08:42	TUS 10:11	10%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	6h 20m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	1h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest	4h 56m	98%	80%
United Details →	SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237	2h 35m Houston	IAH 20:00 → TUS 20:42UA 4040 · flown by Mesa	8h 44m	97%	80%
United Details →	SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309	3h 49m San Francisco	SFO 16:36 → TUS 18:53UA 5962 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	100%	74%
United Details →	SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830	2h 01m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → TUS 12:22UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest	6h 02m	98%	72%
American Details →	SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055	3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:02 → TUS 17:39AA 3140	9h 39m	97%	69%
American Details →	SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01AA 584	8h 41m	98%	65%
Alaska Details →	SAN 06:16 → SEA 09:05AS 709	1h 14m Seattle	SEA 10:19 → TUS 13:31AS 648	7h 15m	85%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 07:15 → SFO 09:01UA 2274	1h 04m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → TUS 12:22UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest	5h 07m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON