Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1073 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 1073 SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1185 SAT 16:46 → ATL 20:17 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1073 Delta Flight history →	SAT 05:20	ATL 08:46	3%	1%	0.7%	93%
DL 1066 Delta Flight history →	SAT 06:40	ATL 10:07	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 998 Delta Flight history →	SAT 07:40	ATL 11:06	4%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1676 Delta Flight history →	SAT 10:38	ATL 14:05	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 1408 Delta Flight history →	SAT 14:35	ATL 18:11	8%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 2009 Delta Flight history →	SAT 16:15	ATL 19:50	8%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 1465 Delta Flight history →	SAT 18:16	ATL 21:54	9%	3%	0.7%	84%
WN 1185 Southwest	SAT 16:46	ATL 20:17	16%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON