tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 816 Delta Flight history → SAT 13:20 BOS 18:47 35% 11% 0.7% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 53m Houston IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28UA 1977 5h 58m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 6h 25m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 6h 07m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655 6h 46m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → BOS 13:37AA 1206 7h 36m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657 9h 06m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:25AA 2616 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:13 → BOS 12:10AA 1438 6h 09m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 12:22 → BOS 15:00DL 1293 6h 20m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 50m Houston IAH 18:15 → BOS 23:19UA 521 6h 01m 74% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON