tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3701 Southwest SAT 05:11 BWI 09:49 2% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 4295 Southwest SAT 16:56 BWI 21:33 14% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 03m Houston IAH 07:40 → BWI 11:47UA 604 5h 17m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 6h 41m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 8h 13m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 29m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 7h 47m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 55m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 32m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 26m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 7h 47m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → BWI 14:10AA 2733 7h 09m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928 8h 26m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON