Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3617 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 3–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3617 SAT 05:26 → DAL 06:43 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1245 SAT 18:51 → DAL 20:08 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3617 Southwest	SAT 05:26	DAL 06:43	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2507 Southwest	SAT 07:21	DAL 08:38	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1679 Southwest	SAT 10:33	DAL 11:50	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 257 Southwest	SAT 12:23	DAL 13:40	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2050 Southwest	SAT 15:26	DAL 16:43	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4539 Southwest	SAT 13:58	DAL 15:15	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1245 Southwest	SAT 18:51	DAL 20:08	17%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON