Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 1718 at 06:40, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1718 American Flight history →	SAT 06:40	DCA 11:02	6%	3%	1.0%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	1h 17m Houston	IAH 07:54 → DCA 12:18UA 512	5h 48m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 43m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 07m	96%	86%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177	6h 41m	98%	85%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:25AA 2616	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:33 → DCA 13:43AA 2399	7h 42m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	9h 05m	98%	83%
United Details →	SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410	3h 05m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	7h 20m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	52m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	5h 07m	93%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAT 13:20 → BOS 18:47DL 816	1h 18m Boston	BOS 20:05 → DCA 22:03DL 5666 · flown by Republic	7h 43m	75%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON