Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 935 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 935 SAT 05:41 → DEN 06:54 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2479 SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 935 Southwest	SAT 05:41	DEN 06:54	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 5397 SkyWest	SAT 05:34	DEN 07:12	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4042 Southwest	SAT 10:46	DEN 12:00	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3711 Southwest	SAT 11:46	DEN 12:58	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2853 United Flight history →	SAT 08:53	DEN 10:11	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SAT 13:39	DEN 14:55	13%	4%	0.5%	84%
WN 160 Southwest	SAT 13:41	DEN 14:53	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1575 Southwest	SAT 18:46	DEN 19:58	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2479 United Flight history →	SAT 16:35	DEN 18:08	20%	6%	0.5%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON