Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2616 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 2616 SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 620 SAT 17:40 → DFW 19:04 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2616 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	DFW 06:25	3%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 2342 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	DFW 06:18	4%	2%	0.9%	91%
AA 3098 American Flight history →	SAT 07:00	DFW 08:20	7%	3%	0.9%	83%
AA 2377 American Flight history →	SAT 08:00	DFW 09:24	8%	3%	0.9%	86%
AA 2759 American Flight history →	SAT 10:45	DFW 12:09	8%	4%	0.9%	78%
AA 1631 American Flight history →	SAT 09:32	DFW 10:49	10%	4%	0.8%	78%
MQ 4039 Envoy	SAT 11:34	DFW 12:50	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 413 American Flight history →	SAT 12:38	DFW 14:02	13%	7%	0.8%	70%
AA 2768 American	SAT 14:04	DFW 15:28	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2609 American Flight history →	SAT 14:48	DFW 16:11	15%	6%	0.8%	69%
MQ 3742 Envoy	SAT 19:05	DFW 20:21	15%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 1961 American Flight history →	SAT 16:23	DFW 17:47	16%	7%	1.0%	71%
AA 620 American	SAT 17:40	DFW 19:04	17%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON