tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3713 at 06:46, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3713 Southwest SAT 06:46 ELP 07:29 3% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002 9h 00m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:46 → IAH 12:59UA 1282 3h 59m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 7h 16m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 1h 59m Houston IAH 10:49 → ELP 11:51UA 6309 · flown by Mesa 5h 08m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:20 → ELP 09:16AA 1365 5h 15m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 1h 15m Denver DEN 11:26 → ELP 13:29UA 2128 5h 36m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → SAT 07:00 → DFW 08:20AA 3098 2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:46 → ELP 11:41AA 1658 5h 41m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:48 → IAH 11:00UA 753 3h 20m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 37m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713 7h 15m 95% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON