Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:38, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 471 United Flight history →	SAT 07:00	IAD 11:27	4%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 2250 United Flight history →	SAT 12:01	IAD 16:28	10%	4%	0.6%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965	6h 46m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	6h 21m	99%	88%
United Details →	SAT 13:59 → ORD 16:52UA 2243	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → IAD 23:15UA 304	8h 16m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SAT 12:39 → SLC 14:30DL 930	3h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847	9h 50m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	8h 06m	100%	83%
United Details →	SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853	2h 15m Denver	DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853	8h 05m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	6h 52m	99%	83%
United Details →	SAT 09:48 → IAH 11:00UA 753	3h 47m Houston	IAH 14:47 → IAD 18:58UA 1178	8h 10m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAT 13:35 → EWR 18:30UA 1261	59m Newark	EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00UA 2677	6h 25m	67%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON