Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 469 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 469 SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 404 SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 469 United Flight history →	SAT 05:30	IAH 06:37	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 753 United Flight history →	SAT 09:48	IAH 11:00	6%	3%	0.6%	70%
UA 410 United Flight history →	SAT 07:43	IAH 08:50	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 1282 United Flight history →	SAT 11:46	IAH 12:59	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 275 United	SAT 17:58	IAH 19:10	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 404 United Flight history →	SAT 16:18	IAH 17:25	17%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 6278 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SAT 11:43	IAH 12:55	9%	4%	1.4%	91%
UA 6281 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	SAT 14:15	IAH 15:27	20%	8%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON