tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3722 at 11:41, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3722 Southwest SAT 11:41 MCI 13:47 7% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 23m Houston IAH 08:00 → MCI 10:07UA 2009 4h 37m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 7h 27m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 1h 03m Minneapolis MSP 10:02 → MCI 11:35DL 1349 5h 30m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 5h 51m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 49m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:14 → MCI 09:02AA 2430 4h 01m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:48 → IAH 11:00UA 753 3h 35m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 6h 59m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 15m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 6h 32m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON