tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3724 at 09:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3724 Southwest SAT 09:21 MDW 12:06 5% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3725 Southwest SAT 14:36 MDW 17:21 15% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 36m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 5h 37m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 3h 05m Detroit DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor 7h 31m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAT 11:29 → DTW 15:35DL 788 2h 32m Detroit DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor 7h 00m 99% 58%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor 7h 04m 99% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON