Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 1604 at 05:01, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1604 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	MIA 09:00	7%	3%	1.0%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 42m	99%	83%
United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	1h 18m Houston	IAH 07:55 → MIA 11:33UA 2753	5h 03m	97%	81%
American Details →	SAT 06:01 → CLT 10:00AA 1119	1h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 10m	94%	80%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → MIA 12:55AA 1219	6h 54m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:35 → ATL 18:11DL 1408	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	8h 04m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	1h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 09m	96%	79%
United Details →	SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410	3h 10m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	7h 04m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	7h 51m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON