tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3559 at 06:56, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3559 Southwest SAT 06:56 MSY 08:38 3% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 17m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 6h 37m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 53m Houston IAH 07:30 → MSY 08:46UA 491 3h 16m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 5h 19m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:42 → MSY 09:27AA 2157 4h 26m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 05m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 5h 31m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:48 → IAH 11:00UA 753 3h 48m Houston IAH 14:48 → MSY 16:13UA 2738 6h 25m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:25AA 2616 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:55 → MSY 10:39AA 1684 5h 38m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON