Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 632 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 632 SAT 06:24 → ORD 09:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2801 SAT 17:30 → ORD 20:23 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 632 American Flight history →	SAT 06:24	ORD 09:29	6%	3%	1.8%	87%
UA 1332 United Flight history →	SAT 06:40	ORD 09:38	7%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 4176 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SAT 18:57	ORD 22:07	15%	6%	1.7%	76%
AA 2845 American	SAT 14:51	ORD 17:50	20%	9%	1.6%	no record
UA 2243 United Flight history →	SAT 13:59	ORD 16:52	22%	8%	0.7%	78%
UA 2801 United	SAT 17:30	ORD 20:23	25%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON