Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Bush, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1233 American	SAT 07:13	PHL 12:12	7%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	2h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	7h 38m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	10h 09m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885	7h 23m	99%	87%
United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	47m Houston	IAH 07:24 → PHL 12:10UA 2203	5h 40m	94%	86%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:25AA 2616	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415	5h 51m	97%	86%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:29 → PHL 13:00AA 2255	6h 59m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	5h 44m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	50m Detroit	DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331	5h 31m	93%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAT 16:23 → DFW 17:47AA 1961	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	5h 34m	74%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON