Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3727 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3727 SAT 06:36 → PHX 07:08 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2973 SAT 19:11 → PHX 19:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3727 Southwest	SAT 06:36	PHX 07:08	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3414 Southwest	SAT 12:23	PHX 12:56	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2053 American Flight history →	SAT 08:32	PHX 09:09	10%	4%	0.6%	84%
WN 3729 Southwest	SAT 17:11	PHX 17:45	12%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 2375 American Flight history →	SAT 15:31	PHX 16:10	13%	8%	0.6%	68%
AA 2973 American Flight history →	SAT 19:11	PHX 19:50	16%	8%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON