tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3687 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3687 Southwest SAT 06:26 SAN 07:30 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1456 Southwest SAT 19:31 SAN 20:34 21% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 19m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843 8h 19m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 8h 28m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 38m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 2h 53m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 21m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924 8h 37m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 10m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 7h 38m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:53 → DEN 10:11UA 2853 3h 19m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 8h 02m 98% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON