Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 494 Alaska Flight history →	SAT 16:44	SEA 19:10	24%	5%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 55m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	11h 30m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	11h 09m	99%	85%
United Details →	SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 13:05 → SEA 15:56UA 1824	10h 56m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 19m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	11h 14m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SAT 07:19 → LAX 08:20DL 2534	3h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045	9h 36m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 27m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON