tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Phoenix, leaving 15:31, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 214 United SAT 07:45 SFO 09:33 13% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 1210 United SAT 18:54 SFO 20:45 20% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 10h 10m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 9h 04m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 43m Houston IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 6h 55m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAT 11:46 → IAH 12:59UA 1282 2h 31m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 7h 49m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471 1h 13m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 10h 27m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:48 → IAH 11:00UA 753 1h 51m Houston IAH 12:51 → SFO 15:12UA 2611 7h 24m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:10 → SFO 08:53AA 1949 5h 52m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 2h 24m Houston IAH 19:49 → SFO 22:12UA 1202 7h 54m 93% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON