tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1451 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1451 Southwest SAT 07:41 STL 10:03 4% 1% 0.4% no record
WN 3732 Southwest SAT 17:01 STL 19:19 16% 4% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 7h 03m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497 3h 08m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 7h 50m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 57m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:44 → STL 09:45AA 3333 4h 44m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 23m Houston IAH 08:00 → STL 10:07UA 6214 · flown by Mesa 4h 37m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 1h 23m Chicago ORD 11:01 → STL 12:35UA 1044 5h 55m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 7h 15m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 15m Houston IAH 12:05 → STL 14:34UA 2042 6h 51m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAT 13:35 → EWR 18:30UA 1261 59m Newark EWR 19:29 → STL 21:07UA 2040 7h 32m 67% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON