Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3447 at 17:46, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3447 Southwest	SAT 17:46	TPA 21:33	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	48m Houston	IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353	4h 15m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	5h 09m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	6h 33m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	6h 55m	99%	84%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:14 → TPA 11:01AA 2516	5h 00m	95%	83%
United Details →	SAT 07:00 → IAD 11:27UA 471	1h 22m Dulles	IAD 12:49 → TPA 15:15UA 2277	7h 15m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:15 → DTW 09:20DL 2497	55m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	6h 35m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → TPA 17:59DL 1425	6h 21m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON