Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3098 SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3014 SAV 17:05 → ATL 18:19 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3098 Delta Flight history →	SAV 05:39	ATL 06:45	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 1702 Delta Flight history →	SAV 06:43	ATL 07:53	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 3054 Delta Flight history →	SAV 12:39	ATL 13:54	7%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 3011 Delta Flight history →	SAV 10:03	ATL 11:09	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 527 Delta Flight history →	SAV 20:14	ATL 21:35	8%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 3112 Delta Flight history →	SAV 19:07	ATL 20:34	9%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 686 Delta Flight history →	SAV 08:10	ATL 09:18	10%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 1067 Delta Flight history →	SAV 15:43	ATL 16:54	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 3014 Delta Flight history →	SAV 17:05	ATL 18:19	12%	3%	0.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON