Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5049 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 5049 SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2372 SAV 17:40 → CLT 18:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5049 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 07:00	CLT 08:25	6%	4%	1.1%	95%
OH 5277 PSA	SAV 09:37	CLT 10:52	9%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 5676 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 10:45	CLT 12:00	11%	4%	1.1%	88%
AA 5534 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 12:10	CLT 13:25	12%	5%	1.1%	93%
OH 5677 PSA	SAV 14:21	CLT 15:36	14%	6%	1.1%	no record
OH 5553 PSA	SAV 16:16	CLT 17:31	16%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 2372 American	SAV 17:40	CLT 18:59	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 5910 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 11:00	CLT 12:26	14%	6%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON