Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5146 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 5146 SAV 07:11 → DCA 09:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OH 5243 SAV 15:20 → DCA 17:08 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5146 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 07:11	DCA 09:10	13%	7%	1.3%	89%
OH 5506 PSA	SAV 10:48	DCA 12:36	22%	8%	1.3%	no record
OH 5243 PSA	SAV 15:20	DCA 17:08	30%	10%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON