Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2828 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2828 United Flight history →	SAV 06:15	EWR 08:27	7%	3%	1.5%	94%
UA 546 United Flight history →	SAV 15:24	EWR 17:37	35%	15%	1.0%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	4h 50m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	SAV 06:43 → ATL 07:53DL 1702	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 38m	98%	84%
American Details →	SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA	2h 18m Charlotte	CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:41AA 1697	5h 41m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	SAV 08:10 → ATL 09:18DL 686	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:02 → EWR 13:15DL 8883	5h 05m	96%	77%
United Details →	SAV 07:00 → IAH 08:31UA 6220 · flown by Mesa	1h 20m Houston	IAH 09:51 → EWR 14:30UA 2402	7h 30m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	5h 21m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	SAV 15:43 → ATL 16:54DL 1067	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	6h 46m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	SAV 12:39 → ATL 13:54DL 3054	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	5h 15m	98%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON