Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5032 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 5032 SAV 07:19 → JFK 09:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 342 SAV 14:26 → JFK 16:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5032 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SAV 07:19	JFK 09:31	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 5207 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SAV 11:24	JFK 13:38	10%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 5460 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	SAV 17:49	JFK 20:03	15%	6%	0.7%	75%
B6 342 JetBlue Flight history →	SAV 14:26	JFK 16:40	22%	10%	0.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON