Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 5640 at 18:52, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5640 SAV 18:52 → LGA 21:12 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5640 Republic	SAV 18:52	LGA 21:12	33%	12%	1.6%	no record
DL 5457 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 06:00	LGA 08:11	14%	8%	3.8%	86%
DL 5267 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 12:05	LGA 14:23	31%	10%	6.1%	69%
DL 5178 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	SAV 18:50	LGA 21:10	43%	17%	10.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON