Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3228 at 06:01, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3228 American	SAV 06:01	MIA 07:47	10%	5%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 18m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SAV 06:43 → ATL 07:53DL 1702	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 19m	99%	83%
American Details →	SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 11m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SAV 17:05 → ATL 18:19DL 3014	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 34m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SAV 10:03 → ATL 11:09DL 3011	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323	5h 28m	99%	77%
American Details →	SAV 10:45 → CLT 12:00AA 5676 · flown by PSA	1h 29m Charlotte	CLT 13:29 → MIA 15:36AA 1198	4h 51m	94%	72%
American Details →	SAV 07:11 → DCA 09:10AA 5146 · flown by PSA	2h 45m Washington	DCA 11:55 → MIA 14:38AA 1627	7h 27m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	SAV 15:43 → ATL 16:54DL 1067	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 16m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAV 07:11 → DCA 09:10AA 5146 · flown by PSA	46m Washington	DCA 09:56 → MIA 12:46AA 401	5h 35m	72%	60%
American Details →	SAV 15:04 → DFW 16:50AA 2048	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:43 → MIA 21:44AA 2050	6h 40m	68%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON