Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3708 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–27%.

Safest bet that day YX 3708 SAV 06:11 → ORD 07:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2499 SAV 16:30 → ORD 18:02 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3708 Republic	SAV 06:11	ORD 07:57	8%	3%	1.1%	no record
UA 485 United	SAV 08:53	ORD 10:33	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1464 United	SAV 12:46	ORD 14:26	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4054 Envoy	SAV 11:52	ORD 13:25	21%	6%	1.3%	no record
UA 2499 United	SAV 16:30	ORD 18:02	27%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON