Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5570 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5570 SAV 07:45 → PHL 09:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2708 SAV 18:27 → PHL 20:44 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5570 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SAV 07:45	PHL 09:50	9%	7%	1.7%	96%
OH 5204 PSA	SAV 11:52	PHL 13:56	18%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2793 American	SAV 13:54	PHL 16:11	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2708 American	SAV 18:27	PHL 20:44	26%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON