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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Savannah). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAV 05:39 → ATL 06:45DL 3098 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 04m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAV 06:43 → ATL 07:53DL 1702 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 34m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SAV 11:24 → DTW 13:37DL 1119 3h 08m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 7h 00m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAV 12:39 → ATL 13:54DL 3054 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 6h 14m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAV 07:00 → CLT 08:25AA 5049 · flown by PSA 3h 40m Charlotte CLT 12:05 → STL 13:04AA 3096 7h 04m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAV 15:43 → ATL 16:54DL 1067 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 19:16 → STL 20:05DL 2833 5h 22m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → SAV 12:10 → CLT 13:25AA 5534 · flown by PSA 3h 37m Charlotte CLT 17:02 → STL 18:04AA 2686 6h 54m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAV 06:15 → EWR 08:27UA 2828 1h 17m Newark EWR 09:44 → STL 11:20UA 2311 6h 05m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAV 15:24 → EWR 17:37UA 546 1h 52m Newark EWR 19:29 → STL 21:07UA 2040 6h 43m 72% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON