Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2865 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2865 SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1790 SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2865 United Flight history →	SBA 05:00	DEN 08:27	6%	4%	0.7%	94%
WN 3041 Southwest	SBA 14:26	DEN 17:59	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1790 United Flight history →	SBA 12:48	DEN 16:16	22%	7%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON