tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 1822 at 12:21, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1822 American SBA 12:21 DFW 17:52 26% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800 5h 40m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → DFW 14:25UA 1062 6h 10m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 08m Denver DEN 09:35 → DFW 12:39UA 1350 5h 39m 95% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392 7h 08m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:40 → DFW 21:23DL 2796 6h 43m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790 2h 37m Denver DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565 7h 11m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → SBA 12:31 → PHX 14:19AA 2928 2h 50m Phoenix PHX 17:09 → DFW 21:38AA 2210 7h 07m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 1h 53m San Francisco SFO 17:01 → DFW 22:46UA 1336 6h 48m 91% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 12:37 → ORD 19:00UA 1009 50m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 7h 59m 50% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON