tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4649 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SBA 06:00 LAX 07:03 8% 6% 0.9% 91%
UA 5994 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SBA 14:31 LAX 15:29 18% 9% 0.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 37m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 1h 35m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 1h 28m San Francisco SFO 08:53 → LAX 10:23UA 1457 4h 08m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAX 13:20AS 695 5h 46m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161 5h 27m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 17:57 → LAX 19:37UA 2282 5h 39m 96% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 10:51 → SEA 13:26AS 2143 · flown by Horizon 2h 33m Seattle SEA 15:59 → LAX 18:44AS 1300 7h 53m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → SBA 12:31 → PHX 14:19AA 2928 1h 21m Phoenix PHX 15:40 → LAX 17:13AA 1331 4h 42m 84% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305 1h 17m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 4h 07m 74% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON