Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3741 at 06:36, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3741 Southwest	SBA 06:36	OAK 07:59	3%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	5h 56m	99%	94%
Alaska Details →	SBA 14:39 → PDX 16:49AS 2318 · flown by Horizon	3h 05m Portland	PDX 19:54 → OAK 21:41AS 2036 · flown by Horizon	7h 02m	98%	84%
Alaska Details →	SBA 10:51 → SEA 13:26AS 2143 · flown by Horizon	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 16:41 → OAK 18:42AS 1328	7h 51m	100%	68%
Alaska Details →	SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon	2h 08m San Diego	SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	4h 51m	96%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON