Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1009 United Flight history →	SBA 13:47	ORD 20:08	37%	10%	0.7%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865	2h 48m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	7h 55m	99%	87%
United Details →	SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Los Angeles	LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946	6h 35m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	6h 49m	97%	78%
United Details →	SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340	2h 47m San Francisco	SFO 10:12 → ORD 16:39UA 2827	8h 24m	99%	77%
United Details →	SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790	1h 54m Denver	DEN 18:10 → ORD 21:43UA 2272	6h 55m	92%	74%
American Details →	SBA 12:31 → PHX 14:19AA 2928	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 15:29 → ORD 21:19AA 435	6h 48m	76%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON