Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1495 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1495 SBA 06:06 → PHX 07:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2928 SBA 12:31 → PHX 14:19 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1495 American	SBA 06:06	PHX 07:54	10%	5%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4030 Envoy	SBA 09:46	PHX 11:26	17%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 2928 American Flight history →	SBA 12:31	PHX 14:19	25%	8%	0.7%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON