Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 3114 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day OO 3114 SBA 05:56 → SAN 07:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3112 SBA 15:26 → SAN 16:41 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3114 SkyWest	SBA 05:56	SAN 07:11	11%	8%	2.0%	no record
WN 4292 Southwest	SBA 11:11	SAN 12:21	19%	10%	1.7%	no record
OO 3112 SkyWest	SBA 15:26	SAN 16:41	25%	14%	1.2%	no record
AS 2174 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SBA 06:00	SAN 07:04	9%	2%	15.4%	91%
AS 2176 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SBA 13:42	SAN 14:47	27%	4%	0.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON