tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2143 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SBA 10:51 SEA 13:26 18% 0% 1.9% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 59m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SBA 12:31 → PHX 14:19AA 2928 3h 36m Phoenix PHX 17:55 → SEA 21:05AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 8h 34m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865 2h 57m Denver DEN 11:24 → SEA 13:14UA 2058 8h 14m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 5h 53m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 2h 05m San Diego SAN 16:52 → SEA 19:41AS 1373 5h 59m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340 2h 42m San Francisco SFO 10:07 → SEA 12:18UA 500 6h 03m 99% 62%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon 1h 54m Portland PDX 11:39 → SEA 12:34AS 1536 5h 00m 97% 58%
AlaskaDetails → SBA 06:00 → SAN 07:04AS 2174 · flown by Horizon 2h 30m San Diego SAN 09:34 → SEA 12:23AS 609 6h 23m 98% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon 1h 06m San Diego SAN 15:53 → SEA 18:43AS 574 5h 01m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON