Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2340 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 2340 SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OO 5831 SBA 09:34 → SFO 10:57 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2340 United Flight history →	SBA 06:15	SFO 07:25	5%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 5256 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SBA 16:03	SFO 17:29	33%	15%	0.9%	74%
UA 2305 United Flight history →	SBA 13:58	SFO 15:08	40%	15%	0.6%	52%
OO 5831 SkyWest	SBA 09:34	SFO 10:57	41%	29%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON