Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:50, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SBA 05:50 → SLC 08:50DL 4069 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 26m	99%	90%
United Details →	SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Los Angeles	LAX 09:31 → SMF 11:18UA 5537 · flown by SkyWest	5h 18m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	SBA 07:34 → PDX 09:45AS 2178 · flown by Horizon	1h 15m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	4h 59m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:35 → SMF 18:16DL 2585	5h 36m	98%	84%
United Details →	SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340	52m San Francisco	SFO 08:17 → SMF 09:25UA 5220 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m	88%	77%
Alaska Details →	SBA 13:42 → SAN 14:47AS 2176 · flown by Horizon	2h 52m San Diego	SAN 17:39 → SMF 19:28AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest	5h 46m	100%	75%
United Details →	SBA 14:31 → LAX 15:29UA 5994 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Los Angeles	LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m	84%	74%
Alaska Details →	SBA 06:00 → SAN 07:04AS 2174 · flown by Horizon	3h 56m San Diego	SAN 11:00 → SMF 12:53AS 3439 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	98%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON